November Zinc Concentrate Imports Rose as Expected; Can December Volumes Be Sustained? [SMM analysis]

SMM Dec 22 News:

According to the latest customs data, China imported 519,000 mt in physical content of zinc concentrates in November 2025, up 52.27% MoM (an increase of 164,500 mt in physical content) and up 13.84% YoY. Cumulative zinc concentrate imports from January to November totaled 4.8679 million mt in physical content, up 33.74% YoY.

By country, the top three sources of imports in November 2025 were Australia (111,100 mt in physical content, 21.4%), Peru (96,800 mt in physical content, 18.7%), and South Africa (50,000 mt in physical content, 9.6%). MoM, countries such as Australia, South Africa, Mexico, and Bolivia showed significant increases, while inflows from Chile, Turkey, and Cuba decreased to varying degrees.

SMM believes the noticeable MoM growth in zinc concentrate imports in November largely met earlier market expectations, for the following reasons:

1. Due to cyclical arrivals, zinc concentrate shipments from Australia increased MoM in November, contributing the bulk of the monthly increase.

2. Although the import arbitrage window for zinc concentrates remained closed in November, robust demand for zinc concentrates during the domestic winter stockpiling period, coupled with tight domestic ore supply, led domestic smelters to continue purchasing imported zinc concentrates to maintain production.

Entering December, although domestic smelter production cuts continued to widen amid declining TC rates both domestically and internationally, pre-priced imported zinc concentrates secured by smelters earlier continued to arrive. Additionally, tight domestic ore supply kept purchase willingness for imported zinc concentrates relatively strong among some ore-short smelters. Furthermore, the LME Cash-3M structure shifted into contango mid-month, reopening the Chinese zinc concentrate import arbitrage window after half a year, creating some conditions for spot order inflows of imported zinc concentrates. Considering these various factors, zinc concentrate imports in December are expected to remain above 400,000 mt.

(The above information is based on market collection and comprehensive evaluation by the SMM research team. The information provided in this article is for reference only. This article does not constitute direct advice for investment research and decision-making. Customers should make cautious decisions and should not replace their independent judgment with this information. Any decisions made by customers are not related to SMM.)